March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes must be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), but there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to for those picking the No. 12 seed - a minimum of versus the spread.


Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matchups. Over the past 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.


Don't simply blindly bet on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this pattern with regard - like dealing with a cobra.


Three patterns to fade


There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering trends out there that you need to never ever blindly track when putting your bets or developing your bracket. Here's the idea of the iceberg.


Conference trends


Certain conferences will have more powerful historic ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, however the groups, challengers, gamers and spreads all differ when building out this bull crap. The overall strength of conferences sways every year, so don't go chasing the SEC groups or fading ACC schools based entirely on those conferences' counts versus the spread.


Seed vs. Seed trends


We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which destroyed a lot of "savvy" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors should tread gently with that info and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be expanding by the season, so don't base a bet exclusively on the Selection Committee's seeding.


Point spread and Over/Under trends


Brace yourself for some doozies when it concerns any historical NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and overalls. You'll get alluring trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a specific point variety and Over/Under ideas based upon previous totals from certain seeding matches.


As discussed, some trends can lead you down the ideal handicapping road but a lot of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be doubtful of these trends and look into the previous outcomes that powered them. If you can, attempt to identify a narrative behind them that could roll over into this year's March Madness field.


How sportsbooks deal with March Madness trends


Perhaps the very best method to assess how beneficial March Madness wagering patterns are is to take a look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.


If you ask an oddsmaker if they're considering the past versus the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 match odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mostly disregard historical patterns, especially in college sports, as gamer and ability turnover varies significantly from year-to-year.


Oddsmakers base their numbers on current kind and information from that season instead of historical hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random gamers led by random coaches from random conferences dipping into random websites. You get the idea.


The decision on March Madness patterns


Basketball wagerers need to watch out for many March Madness patterns. While wagering on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from examining them and detecting past patterns.


Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has an enormous sports wagering database that pumps out numerous March Madness betting trends every year. And while he doesn't get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the worth in what he calls "expecting span".


"There is a factor that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who stop working to discover from history are doomed to repeat it,'" Lawrence says. "By discovering failures and successes from the past and using abilities from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams change, but methods and patterns are highly predictive ... By relying on past patterns, we can better anticipate expectancy."


March Madness wagering websites


March Madness is an incredibly popular season for sports gamblers and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting site offering March Madness chances, it is essential to know which are safe and safe and secure, provide a broad range of banking choices, and offer you a ton of markets for each game. Have a look at the best March Madness wagering sites in your region, reviewed by Covers' team of knowledgeable professionals.